The Competition Council of Latvia (CC) has carried out a preliminary study on fuel price changes at the beginning of 2026, analysing information provided by market participants, procurement costs and trends in international markets.
As a result of the study, the CC concluded that the increase in fuel prices in the first quarter of 2026 were driven by objective external factors - namely, the geopolitical situation and the associated sharp rise in petroleum product prices on international markets, which directly affected fuel procurement costs. The CC did not identify any indications of competition-restricting practices in the retail fuel market.
The CC’s initial data analysis indicates similar price dynamics in the market, but does not, at first sight, suggest coordinated competition-restricting conduct among market participants. Similar price changes can be explained by common external economic factors affecting all retailers simultaneously.
The information available to the CC does not indicate that the price increase was linked to a rise in retail margins. On the contrary, in the first quarter of 2026, the most significant increase was observed in the procurement cost component: approximately 39% for petrol and around 70% for diesel.
At the same time, the CC concluded that price dynamics in Latvia do not differ significantly from those in other Baltic States and the EU, indicating the influence of common external factors.
In the CC’s view, effective competition persists in the retail fuel market, characterised by a high degree of price sensitivity among consumers, which encourages fuel retailers to offer price promotions and loyalty schemes even in periods of rapidly rising prices.
The CC will continue to monitor this market going forward. It will also follow developments in relation to the reduction of the excise duty on diesel and its pass-through to final prices, publishing its findings on the CC’s website.